End of Low Water Advisory – Level 1 Condition

Message Number: 2026-01

Issued: January 13, 2026 at 9:00 AM EST

From: NBMCA Duty Officer, Angela Mills

This message is to advise that the Low Water status for the North Bay-Mattawa Conservation Authority watershed has ended. Precipitation and streamflow have increased and are no longer meeting Low Water Condition criteria.

This is an update to the previous Message Number 2025-04 dated December 15, 2025, where Low Water Level 2 Condition had been downgraded to Level 1.

Current Conditions:

Precipitation, combined rain and snow, recorded at the North Bay Airport climate station for October, November, and December was a total of 275.4 mm this year, which is 98.8% of the long-term average (1991-2020) of 278.5 mm.

The 31-day average streamflow at the Chippewa Creek, La Vase River, and Wasi River gauges were 0.1.447 m³/s, 0.439 m³/s, and 2.19 m³/s respectively. Chippewa Creek is currently 512 % of its lowest average summer month flow of 0.283 m³/s. The La Vase River is currently 160 % of its lowest average summer month flow of 0.275 m³/s. The Wasi River is currently 216 % of its lowest average summer month flow of 1.014 m³/s. Flows responded significantly to the recent rain and snow melt events.

Forecast Conditions:

The 3-month seasonal forecast from Environment Canada indicates conditions for January through March 2026 are likely to be near normal for our area.

Where a Conservation Authority has not been established, the MNR District Office is responsible for local Low Water Response programs. https://www.lioapplications.lrc.gov.on.ca/webapps/swmc/low-water-response/

Low water levels

The Low Water Response Program has three condition levels. The levels are based on trends in streamflow and rainfall.

LEVEL 1 CONDITION is the first indication of a potential water supply problem. A Water Response Team (WRT) may be convened. Voluntary water use reductions are encouraged, targeting an overall 10% reduction.

Level 1 is based on the following criteria:

18-month precipitation < 80% of average, or
3-month precipitation < 80% of average, or
Monthly flow < 80% lowest average summer month flow, or

In Spring (i.e., April, May, June) only:

Monthly flow < 100% lowest average summer month flow.

LEVEL 2 CONDITION indicates a potentially serious water supply problem. The WRT may contact individual water users and Permit To Take Water (PTTW) holders to encourage further water use reductions, targeting an overall 20% reduction.

Level 2 is based on the following criteria:

18-month precipitation < 60% of average, or
3-month precipitation < 60% of average, or
1-month precipitation < 60% of average, or
3 weeks with < 7.6mm rainfall, or
Monthly flow < 50% lowest average summer month flow, or

In Spring (i.e., April, May, June) only:

Monthly flow < 70% lowest average summer month flow.

LEVEL 3 CONDITION indicates the failure of the water supply to meet the demand, resulting in progressively more severe and widespread socioeconomic effects. The WRT may ask the province to impose mandatory restrictions on those holding Permits to Take Water.

Level 3 is based on the following criteria: