LOW WATER LEVEL 1 CONDITION
Message Number: 2025-01
Issued: January 8, 2025, at 8:30 AM EST
From: NBMCA Duty Officer, Angela Mills
This message is to advise that the Low Water status for the North Bay-Mattawa Conservation Authority watershed has ended. Precipitation and streamflow have increased and are no longer meeting Low Water Condition criteria.
This is an update to the previous Message Number 2024-01 dated November 1, 2024, where Low Water Level 1 Condition was confirmed.
Current Conditions:
Precipitation, combined rain and snow, recorded at the North Bay Airport climate station for October, November, and December was a total of 250 mm this year, which is 89.7% of the long-term average (1991-2020) of 278.5.5 mm. A significant rain event recorded 41 mm at the end of December, bringing the total precipitation for December to 108 mm (147.7% of normal).
The 31-day average streamflow at the Chippewa Creek, La Vase River, and Wasi River gauges were 0.283 m3/s, 1.027 m3/s, and 2.264 m3/s respectively. Chippewa Creek is currently 254% of its lowest average summer month flow of 0.283 m3/s. The La Vase River is currently 363% of its lowest average summer month flow of 0.283 m3/s. The Wasi River is currently 207% of its lowest average summer month flow of 1.096 m3/s. Flows responded significantly to the recent rain and snow melt, however, at no point in the last 31-days have the daily flows met the summer low flow criteria for any of these rivers.
Forecast Conditions:
The 3-month seasonal forecast from Environment Canada indicates conditions for January through March 2025 are likely to be warmer and wetter than normal, however, snowpack storage is likely to be lower than normal. The 14-day forecast is forecasting minimal precipitation, however, January through March usually record the least monthly precipitation.
Low water levels
The Low Water Response Program has three condition levels. The levels are based on trends in streamflow and rainfall.
LEVEL 1 CONDITION is the first indication of a potential water supply problem. A Water Response Team (WRT) may be convened. Voluntary water use reductions are encouraged, targeting an overall 10% reduction.
Level 1 is based on the following criteria:
- 18-month precipitation < 80% of average, or
- 3-month precipitation < 80% of average, or
- Monthly flow < 80% lowest average summer month flow, or
In Spring (i.e., April, May, June) only:
- Monthly flow < 100% lowest average summer month flow.
LEVEL 2 CONDITION indicates a potentially serious water supply problem. The WRT may contact individual water users and Permit To Take Water (PTTW) holders to encourage further water use reductions, targeting an overall 20% reduction.
Level 2 is based on the following criteria:
- 18-month precipitation < 60% of average, or
- 3-month precipitation < 60% of average, or
- 1-month precipitation < 60% of average, or
- 3 weeks with < 7.6mm rainfall, or
- Monthly flow < 50% lowest average summer month flow, or
In Spring (i.e., April, May, June) only:
- Monthly flow < 70% lowest average summer month flow.
LEVEL 3 CONDITION indicates the failure of the water supply to meet the demand, resulting in progressively more severe and widespread socioeconomic effects. The WRT may ask the province to impose mandatory restrictions on those holding Permits to Take Water.
Level 3 is based on the following criteria:
- 18-month precipitation < 40% of average, or
- 3-month precipitation < 40% of average, or
- 1-month precipitation < 40% of average, or
- Monthly flow < 30% lowest average summer month flow, or
In Spring (i.e., April, May, June) only:
- Monthly flow < 50% lowest average summer month flow.
Current Conditions
