Low Water Advisory – Level 1 Condition

Message Number: 2026-02

Issued: August 20, 2026 at 9:30 AM EDT

From: NBMCA Duty Officer, Angela Mills

Low Water Advisory – Level 1 Condition indicates that the received rainfall and/or streamflow in gauged watercourses are below normal and have met the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) criteria for low water. The Ontario Low Water Response program uses a three-tiered advisory system used to inform the public of local low water conditions where Level 1 is the least severe and Level 3 is the most severe. Level 1 is meant to be the first indication of a potential water supply issue. Voluntary water use reductions are encouraged.

Current Conditions:

The North Bay Airport climate station recorded a total of 249.5 mm of rainfall for May, June and July this year, which is 84.9% of the long-term average (1991-2020) of 227 mm. Month-to-date for August, an average of 27.9 mm of rainfall has been recorded across the watershed.

The 31-day average streamflow at the Chippewa Creek gauge is 0.24 m3/s, 87% of its lowest average summer month flow of 0.28 m3/s, however this is 78% of normal for this time of year.

The 31-day average streamflow at the La Vase River gauge is 0.09 m3/s, 35% of its lowest average summer month flow of 0.27 m3/s, however this is 31% of normal for this time of year.

The 31-day average streamflow at the Wasi River gauge is 0.32 m3/s, 31% of its lowest average summer month flow of 1.01 m3/s, which is also 31% of normal for this time of year.

The 31-day average streamflow at the Mattawa River gauge is 4.73 m3/s, 71% of its lowest average summer month flow of 6.68 m3/s, however this is 68% of normal for this time of year.

Current water levels can be viewed by searching Station Names “Ottawa River”, “Mattawa River”, “Chippewa Creek”, “La Vase River”, “Wasi River”, “Mattawa River”, and “Lake Nipissing” at Real-Time Hydrometric Data Text Search - Water Level and Flow - Environment Canada

There are no criteria for water levels in the Ontario Low Water Response program. Water levels on Lake Nipissing are low for this time of year. Water levels in Lake Nipissing are currently dependent on rains increasing inflows to the lake. The water level on Lake Nipissing is regulated by dams operated by the federal government. Current conditions are available at French River Dams Complex - Canada.ca

Forecasted Conditions:

The 3-month seasonal forecast from Environment Canada indicates temperature conditions for Fall 2026 are likely to be near normal with less than normal precipitation.

Historic Low Water Conditions:

A Low Water Condition was confirmed as Level 1 in early September 2025 and upgraded to Level 2 Low Water Condition in October 2025. It was downgraded to Level 1 in December 2025 and ended in January 2026. Other periods of low water where an advisory of Level 1 Low Water Conditions have been issued include: November 2024 to January 2025, June to August 2021, August 2018, and August 2012. There had not been any previously confirmed Level 2 or Level 3 Conditions in the North Bay-Mattawa watershed.

Risk:

Due to the lack of rainfall and low water levels across the watershed, all residents are encouraged to voluntarily reduce their water consumption, targeting an overall water usage reduction of 10%.

The vulnerability of municipal water supply systems within the North Bay-Mattawa Conservation Authority (NBMCA) area of jurisdiction were assessed through a water budget stress assessment as part of the Drinking Water Source Protection program. All municipal water intakes within NBMCA jurisdiction were determined to have a low level of risk. Municipal water supply issues are not anticipated at this time. Private water systems were not assessed.

Staff at NBMCA will continue to monitor weather and watershed conditions and provide updates as conditions change.

This message will remain in effect until further notice.

The general public is advised of these messages through the www.nbmca.ca website with the low water status icon and a link to information about current conditions. NBMCA also circulates these messages to local media and social media, posting on Twitter (@theNBMCA), Instagram (nbmcainfo), and Facebook (theNBMCA).

Where a Conservation Authority has not been established, the MNR District Office is responsible for local Low Water Response programs. https://www.lioapplications.lrc.gov.on.ca/webapps/swmc/low-water-response/

Low water levels

The Low Water Response Program has three condition levels. The levels are based on trends in streamflow and rainfall.

LEVEL 1 CONDITION is the first indication of a potential water supply problem. A Water Response Team (WRT) may be convened. Voluntary water use reductions are encouraged, targeting an overall 10% reduction.

Level 1 is based on the following criteria:

18-month precipitation < 80% of average, or
3-month precipitation < 80% of average, or
Monthly flow < 80% lowest average summer month flow, or

In Spring (i.e., April, May, June) only:

Monthly flow < 100% lowest average summer month flow.

LEVEL 2 CONDITION indicates a potentially serious water supply problem. The WRT may contact individual water users and Permit To Take Water (PTTW) holders to encourage further water use reductions, targeting an overall 20% reduction.

Level 2 is based on the following criteria:

18-month precipitation < 60% of average, or
3-month precipitation < 60% of average, or
1-month precipitation < 60% of average, or
3 weeks with < 7.6mm rainfall, or
Monthly flow < 50% lowest average summer month flow, or

In Spring (i.e., April, May, June) only:

Monthly flow < 70% lowest average summer month flow.

LEVEL 3 CONDITION indicates the failure of the water supply to meet the demand, resulting in progressively more severe and widespread socioeconomic effects. The WRT may ask the province to impose mandatory restrictions on those holding Permits to Take Water.

Level 3 is based on the following criteria: